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Financial crisis 10 years later: who are the winners and losers?

Financial crisis 10 years later: who are the winners and losers?

The memory still haunts many.

Faced with an incredible debt of $ 619 billion, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.

The biggest failure in history was a decisive moment in a global financial crash that made its presence felt all over the world.

On that early autumn day we watched mesmerized as the company's ex-employees hurried from deceptively robust office buildings that crammed the thinnest cardboard boxes.

Few of us then realized that we were witnessing the epicenter of an economic earthquake whose rubble threatens to bury us a decade later.

As the tenth anniversary of that surreal day, experts in the financial and business sector have tried to grapple hard facts and objective measures with the subjective, politically and socially charged history of the past ten years.

"The financial crisis … was followed by the deepest recession in the United Kingdom, and much of the Western world, since World War II," notes Jonathan Cribb and Paul Johnson of the renowned think tank Institute for Fiscal Studies a study of the financial consequences so far.

"However, what was most remarkable about the crisis and the recession was not the original scale, but the persistence of its effects: we had become accustomed to the economy, and thus also to public finances and household incomes, and bounced back strongly after previous recessions, which did not happen this time. & # 39;

So here is how the financial crisis affects you, and remains.

Income

The nation's income, measured by GDP, is today only 11 percent higher than in the pre-crisis peak in 2007-08. This means that the economy is 16 percent or £ 300bn less than had been intended if it had followed the pre-crisis trend.

Why does that matter to you or me? Because the yawning gap is largely due to terrible levels of productivity, and that affects people on the payslip.

Average real income – adjusted to take account of inflation – for employees is 3 percent lower than in 2008. But that is not consistent between the different generations.

For persons in the twenties or thirties, the result in 2017 was respectively 5 percent and 7 percent lower than in 2008, while for persons aged 60 and older, including those with an income from their pension, the profit was only 1 percent lower than in 2008.

"The growing gap between the generations is partly due to government decisions to maintain the triple lock on pensions, while also much higher tuition fees are paid," says Laura Suter, personal finance analyst at investment platform AJ Bell.

"What is also alarming to note in the 10 years since the financial crash, is the huge level of debt that people of all ages have adopted.

"Low interest rates and relatively easy access to debt mean that households now spend more on average than they earn for the first time since 1988.

"Even in the run-up to the financial crisis, with the era of 100 percent or more mortgages, the debt burden in households was not higher.

"This is accompanied by a decrease in the number of people saved, partly as a result of the low interest rates offered and partly because wages do not keep the living costs and more costs to waste their savings for daily life."

In fact, a group – the 10 Years On campaign – has used government data to estimate that the average British household has lost more than £ 23,000 in real disposable income since the crash in real terms. That's about ten pounds a week since this time ten years ago.

Property

If there is a positive side to all this, then it is the cost of borrowing. Today's mortgage market has improved significantly for borrowers, with tracker speeds starting from 0.57 percent above the base rate.

Before the collapse, mortgages with a fixed interest rate of two years usually amounted to around 5.5 percent. Today they start less than 1.5 percent.

"The base price of the Bank of England plummeted in the aftermath of Lehman's downfall, which for some existing borrowers meant that monthly payments were more in line with a mobile bill than a mortgage," says David Hollingworth, mortgage specialist at L & C Hypotheken.

"Ten years later, fixed rates, the par excellence of the majority of mortgage borrowers, have reached an historic record and are exceptionally cheap.

"Thinking that it would have been an easy journey for the mortgage market would be very broad, and because of the tightening of lenders' funding, the criteria quickly and substantially changed, something that was only underlined by the stricter regulations that naturally followed."

Since then, the mortgage market review has ensured that the criterion standards have not simply fallen back on the looser requirements of 2007. This means that the borrowers will continue to be grilled about their expenses and their income to demonstrate their affordability.

Homeowners have to understand that the nominal rate is only a part of selecting the right mortgage deal and that advice on different criteria from the lender can play a major role in securing a mortgage in the current market.

But low interest rates mean high mortgage-affordability, even if applying for these mortgages is extreme. And that affordability increases the housing market.

The average UK house price fell from a peak before the £ 190,032 crisis in September 2007 to a low of £ 154,452 in March 2009, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Land Registry.

Since then it has been restored to £ 228,384, driven mainly by growth in the south and especially in the southeast of England.

For example, the Northern Irish and Northeast markets are still behind their 2007 peak, and national prices are still low, despite cheap mortgages, high demand and government savings, such as Help to Buy.

Save and invest

"The scars of the financial crisis are visible today in the low prices that are still available for cash savings," said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

In September 2008, the average deposit account paid interest of 3.1 percent, according to Bank of England data. That now stands at 0.43 percent. Ten thousand pounds deposited for the last ten years would now be worth £ 10.852 or £ 8.790 if inflation is taken into account.

Meanwhile, there has been a huge increase in the amount of money in bills without interest, from £ 48bn in September 2008 to £ 164bn today.

Cashiers are one of the big losers of the financial crisis.

But the negative sentiment towards today's dynamic stock market is a further proof that now old wounds are slowly healing for investors.

"The collapse of Lehman Brothers led to a decline in global markets, including a 4 percent drop in the FTSE 100 and a 5 percent drop in the S & P 500," said Khalaf.

"In four days of hectic trade, the British stock market lost about 10 percent of its value, by Christmas it had lost almost a quarter of its value, and almost six months later £ 10,000 had been invested in the FTSE All Share right before Lehman & # 39; s collapse was worth only £ 6,581. This was one of the most dramatic stock exchanges in history. "

It is clear that the prices of the share capital came under great pressure after the fall of Lehman Brothers. An RBS share is now worth about 90 percent less than the day before Lehman collapsed. However, it is not the worst performing FTSE 100 share in this period. Lonmin, the mining company that has recently been downgraded from the blue-chip index, has seen its shares fall by 99.8 percent over this period, turning £ 10,000 into just £ 22.30.

Perhaps surprising, then, if you had invested that £ 10,000 on the eve of Lehman's failure, it would now be worth £ 14,893, without including dividends, and £ 21,352 with reinvested dividends.

Even if you happen to be investing on the eve of such a catastrophic event, time remains a great healer.

Within the British equity market, the UK mid-caps beat the big blue chips during this period, with the FTSE 250 producing a total return of £ 30,324 compared to £ 20,026 of the FTSE 100. The small caps also beat the blue chips , returns £ 27,575 for this period.

The list of the best performing FTSE 100 shares since the September 2008 crisis contains some surprising names. Despite the fact that markets are a huge hit, the London Stock Exchange is at the top of the list, as a major supplier of infrastructure that supports stock trading – whether it's buying or selling. The shares in the group have increased by more than 545 percent since September 2008. Intercontinental Hotels, Next, Experian, Sky and Rolls-Royce are also winners.

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