Local councils have been hitting their own housing goals for over six years, while Britain still struggles to tackle the housing crisis, research has revealed.
After cutting their own figures, modular house supplier Project Etopia discovered that the development in the United Kingdom is evolving so rapidly that 316 sites will have reached too few targets in the next eight years with 889,803 homes.
It comes as a report from the government, conducted by Sir Oliver Letwin, concluded that house builders are deliberately slow to build high house prices.
Housing in 316 municipalities will fall short of 889,803 homes in the coming decade
Last September, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, together with the local authorities, drew up annual housing targets, which in July informed the government's new national planning policy framework.
Only one year after the publication of the report, 241 of the 316 locations already have a shortage, which means that they remain behind the target for an average of 9.2 years.
And of the 10 municipalities that have remained the furthest, it would take until 2060 before all houses needed in 2026 would be built, according to the calculations of Project Etopia.
Which municipalities perform the worst?
Figures show that Southend-on-Sea is by far the worst city or city outside London to meet its targets, and that it will be 8,055 homes short of what it needs by the end of 2026.
If it does not accelerate, it will take 34 years to build up sufficient housing stock.
Will the government's target of 300,000 families be achieved by 2020 by 2020?
The short answer is probably not – goals are far from being met, no matter how you measure them.
In the 2016/17 financial year, 217,350 new homes were completed, a long way away from the government's target of 300,000 homes per year by 2020.
Figures from guarantor NHBC show that this year 106,031 new homes have been delivered by NHBC members, representing about 80 percent of the market.
Reducing an extra 20 percent would bring the total number to 132,500 up to now for this calendar year, excluding conversions of non-residential properties.
The government's budget year runs from April to March, and although it is too early to say how much, it is safe to say that the 300,000 target will not be met.
Steve Wood, chief executive of the NHBC said: "300,000 is clearly still far away and a demanding target.
& # 39; There is no panacea, but there must be some changes in the way the industry works to get there. & # 39;
Alderman James Courtenay, deputy leader of the Southend-on-Sea Council, said: "In July this year, the government's revised national planning policy framework re-evaluated the need for housing with a new formula.
& # 39; We are now preparing new plans to see how and what part of this need can be delivered sustainably in Southend.
& # 39; Considering that we are only three months in the publication of the new NPPF, it is premature to make a meaningful prediction about what will or will not be delivered by our new local plan. & # 39;
Although the revised NPPF did not appear until July, it was informed by the report published in September last year, setting out in detail how many new homes the country should build in each city and city.
Joseph Daniels, chief executive of Project Etopia said: & # 39; Our research shows that councils have enough to do if they want to get anywhere near these targets. & # 39;
York and Luton are the only other cities that lag behind more than 20 years. All 10 councils with the largest shortages have accelerated on average for two decades.
The study Project Etopia showed that even councils with fewer houses to build, such as Gosport in Hampshire, who only have to build 238 per year, have difficulty reaching their own goals. Gosport is 17 years behind.
Why are councils so far behind?
Councils have for years been prevented from building new housing stock themselves, so they are handed over to developers whose building fees can be hindered by economic and planning restrictions.
However, the Prime Minister announced earlier this year at the Conservative Party conference that the loan limit will be lifted to encourage local authorities to deploy and finance new projects themselves.
Daniels said: & It is alarming to see so many areas so far behind. If the pace is not picked up quickly, in 10 years we will be in an even deeper black hole than we are now.
& # 39; Need for housing is clear for everyone to see, but not enough is done about it. There is a sense of complacency – everyone knows that we have to build more houses and quickly, but not enough action is being taken to mitigate the crisis. & # 39;
Where NHBC supplements so far have been registered in 2018, which amounts to 80% of the market
Why does it take so long for houses to be built?
On the same day as the budget last month, Sir Oliver Letwin's annual review of the speed at which new houses are being built was published in its final form.
Letwin has not found that large homebuilders hold land until their maximum value can be realized, a practice known as & # 39; land banking & # 39; for which they have been criticized on a large scale.
|Council||Target 2016 – 2026||Construction speed per year||2026 defecit||How many years behind it?|
|Source: Project Etopia|
Instead, he discovered that developers are buying land based on existing local real estate values and building at a rate that will not flood the market – in fact building up slowly enough to keep house prices where they already are.
The assessment looked at the time that developers needed, from planning approval to completion of the last house at 15 major locations in high-demand areas, and averaging 15.5 years.
The evaluation also showed that only 6.5 percent of the total number of planned houses was built each year.
The Letwin report states: & # 39; Once a home builder working on a large site has paid a price for the country based on the assumption that the sales value of the new homes is close to the current value of second-hand homes in the The home construction company is not inclined to build more houses of a certain type on that site in a particular year than can be sold by the company at that value. & # 39;
In the layman's terms, this translates as: building slowly enough that house prices do not fall.
Letwin concluded: & # 39; It would not be wise to solve the problem of absorption of the market by forcing the big house builders to lower the prices with which they sell their current products.
& # 39; In my opinion, this would cause very serious problems, not only for the big house builders, but possibly also for prices and financing on the housing market, and thus for the economy as a whole.
The types of homes that have been built in Great Britain since 1946 – Office for National Statistics
Instead, he discovered that requiring home builders to build a mix of properties, including a large proportion of the affordable housing, would maintain current house prices and still allow homes to be built faster.
Letwin has not given any suggestions for addressing the affordability threshold for buyers, because the report was solely aimed at bringing more houses to the market faster.
Instead, he suggested giving developers incentives to build more affordable housing and give municipalities extra powers to buy cheaper land for development.
In order to put the scale of the British housing shortage in the right perspective, France has built approximately twice as many new homes as Great Britain since 1970 and has experienced half of real house price growth.
Studies of the Office for National Statistics suggest that the average annual income between 1997 and 2016 rose by only 68 percent, while house prices increased by 259 percent.
Thirty years ago, full-time employees in England and Wales could normally expect to spend 3.6 times their annual revenues on the purchase of a house, according to US data.
Today, home buyers can expect 9.7 times annual revenue when buying a newly built property and 7.6 times their annual income on an existing property.
Source: Open Property Group
Research by Open Property Group suggests that real estate prices should fall on average by 36 percent to £ 125,329 to keep a house affordable for a person who earns an average wage.
Managing Director Jason Harris-Cohen of Open Property Group said: "Property ownership reached its peak in the UK in 2007. These figures show how far beyond the reach of the right to passage of the generation of baby boomers are millennials.
Of course, if there is a better supply of available properties, prices can become more affordable as developers and house sellers compete to make their properties more marketable. & # 39;