On Monday, November 5, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has put the following exchange rates of major foreign currencies on the hryvnia:
1 US dollar – 28.13 UAH;
1 euro – 32.12 UAH;
10 Russian rubles – 4.29 UAH.
So compared to Friday, November 2, the dollar fell with three kopecks after the increase of four. despite NBU reports on currency stabilization. Analysts are waiting for a slight weakening of the hryvnia in November.
The euro rose with four kopecks immediately after an increase of 26 kopecks. Eurocurrency rate exceeded 32 hryvnia, which struck on November 1 for the first time since the end of August.
The cost of 10 Russian rubles has not changed.
On Friday, November 2, the dollar fell into the interbank currency market of Ukraine with two pence in the purchase and one in the sale. Thus, non-cash US currency traded at the level of 28.08 / 28.11 UAH (purchase / sale). The value of the euro was set at the numbers 32.08 / 32.10 UAH, increased by a penny. Today's trade has not started yet.
Predictions dollar price
According to the baseline scenario of the triennial budget resolution, in 2018 the average annual hryvnia rate is estimated at 29.3 UAH / USD, in 2019 – 30.5 UAH / USD and in 2020 – 31 UAH / USD. But in the budget for 2018 it is indicated that the calculations have been made on the basis of the rate of 30.1 UAH / USD. At the same time, both the Ministry of Finance and the NBU claim that this course is not a prediction and should therefore only be regarded as a technical indicator for calculations to create an "air bag".
In the 2019 draft budget, the dollar was 29.4 UAH.
The IMF prediction takes this into account in 2018 the average hryvnia exchange rate will be 27.07 UAH / USD, in 2019 it will decrease by 5.89% – to 28655 UAH / USD, and by 2020 – a further 4.43%, to 29.925 UAH / USD
Ukraine's government debt management strategy means that the hryvnia exchange rate will be increased to 29.4 UAH / USD in 2019 after the expected 30.1 UAH / USD in 2018. In 2020, the hryvnia exchange rate is expected to fall to 30.2 UAH / USD.
And according to the "Prediction of the economic and social development of Ukraine for 2019-2021", developed by the Ministry of Economic Development, by the end of 2018, the hryvnia exchange rate is expected to fall from 28.1 UAH / USD. to 28.5 UAH / USD (plus or minus 1 UAH), followed by weakening to 29.4 UAH / USD. (plus or minus 2 UAH) at the end of 2019. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the hryvnia devalues to 30.7 UAH / USD. (plus or minus 2 UAH) by the end of 2021.
In the National Bank she added that it is not a course of 40 UAH for a dollar, refused to "pull up" the course to a budget of 30.1 UAH and voted their forecast for the dollar at the end of 2018.
- In 2015, the hryvnia depreciated by one and a half times, in 2016 it fell by 12.9%, and by 2017, the national exchange rate weakness by only 3%.
- The historic maximum of the official dollar rate – 30.01 UAH – was reached in February 2015. The record of the official euro rate in Ukraine – UAH 35.66 – was reached on January 26, 2018.
- According to the "Big Mac Index", the dollar in Ukraine should cost 8.9 hryvnia.