The price of the dollar, the installed capacity and the latest consumer price index report would determine the outlook.
Expert in the financial sector in Quindío, in dialogue with THE CHRONICLEmade an analysis of the country's economic prospects for the period 2019taking into account the fact that the report of the Consumer Price Index, IPC, was presented in the last few days, which is the basis for the increases this year. The analyst noted that the expectations of economic growth are good.
"Economic agents such as the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of the Republic they give a part of the peace with the control of inflationbecause you have to remember that three years ago it was above the range that the bank sets. "
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He added: "Last year inflation was 3.18%, that is to say, within the range set between 2% and 4%, which means that the Issuer does not intervene in the transactions of the economic agents. If it exceeds 4%, interest rates rise and credit and investments decline. "
He explained that on February 5th It will be known what the inflation of January and the year was from February 2018 to January 2019"It's always important to have data from the past 12 months, you have to look at it because there are a few months that go up and others that go down and if you keep the last data, you do not do anything else".
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The National Administrative Department of Statistics, Deen, has announced that the IPC report, to be presented in February, will have a methodological update more precise in the numbersbecause it extends the example sample to more municipalities.
Relevant variables for economic growth
The expert noted that the Bank of the Republic conducted a study tax reform and believes that this will not affect economic growth.
"While some analysts believe that growth will be 3% this year, the Treasury Secretary says it will be 4%, expectations are good, there are incentives with the dollar price, which is attractive to exporters who they will feel motivated to send their products abroadbecause, when they bring the dollars, they have more pesos ".
He also explained that It will be a good year for the producers, because the installed capacity of the industry is increasing.
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"The good news is that we come from an installed capacity It was only used in 70%, so there is 30% that can introduce more entrepreneurs without having to invest. This means that production can be increased without having to invest more, except for raw material costs. "
Faced with the elections of mayors and governors, which will take place in October of this year, said in the second half of the year they must not have an impact on product growth, inflation management or exchange rate.
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He referred to the price of oil as one of the determining factors for the economy of the country and argued that the value went up and down, but it is within the range where the government had made its accounts – US $ 60 per barrel – and while it is that way, the situation is one of rest.
The latest report from the CPI
De Deen revealed on Saturday that the consumer price index, CPI, also known as inflation, was 3.18% in 2018. The figure represents a decrease of 0.91% compared to that recorded in 2017when the inflation indicator was 4.09%.
"What we present is very satisfying news for the country and gives confidence to Colombian households and economic analysts," said the Dane Director, Juan Daniel Oviedo.
He added that "although the rainy season was very strong, especially in the second half of last year, we are satisfied with seeing food inflation. did not have very important behavior".
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According to the Dane, in 2018, four groups were above the national average: education -6.38% -, health -4.33% -, housing -4.13% – and transportation -3.73% -. The rest of the expense groups were below the average: food -2.43% -, other costs -2.29% -, clothing -0.33% -, communication -0.28% – and pleasure – 1.16% – .
The national government reported via a statement that in general terms: this result means that inflation for the entire year 2018 -3.18% – is 2.82 points lower than the increase in the minimum wage agreed for 2019, which was 6%, which means a real improvement in the purchasing power of Colombian households.
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It should be remembered that the IPC study presented on Saturday is the basis for the 2019 walks.
One of the most representative increases is the rent, food, monthly payments and toll.
The CPI fell by 0.91% in 2018 compared to the indicator recorded in 2017.