The finances of Finance 202: 2018 are very similar to 1970 intervals


President Trump said he was bracing himself for the interim results that most predictors expect: the Democrats are taking over the house, even if the Republicans brighten their majority in the Senate.

If he – and they – are right, the outcome will be the first half since 1970, when the party of the president won ground in one room while losing the other in the other. In that race, Republicans were deeply in the minority in both chambers and eventually reached ground in the Senate while losing House seats.

That election, halfway through the first term of Richard Nixon, is a potentially useful benchmark for 2018.

Then, as now, the economy was late in a historically long expansion. And while the growth in that year turned negative, as Jeff Cox recently remarked, "was around the time that revolved in November 1970, the economy is on its way to an expansion of three years, which average GDP growth by 5 , 1 percent per year saw. "

And then, as now, the president turned to polarizing cultural issues in the campaign's homestretch, defaming the Democratic opposition while the Vietnamese protest movement raged. "I say that the answer to those who deal with disruption, to those who shout their dirty slogans, to those who try to shout speakers, it is not to reply in kind, but go to the polls on Election Day, and in the silence of that ballot box, stand up and be counted, the great silent majority of America, "said Nixon on October 19, 1970, while punching in Kansas City, Mo. (Trump even Co-opted Nixon & # 39; s "silent majority" coins during its 2016 run, and some have said it has racist overtones.)

Nixon & # 39; s message did not come out. Then, as potential now, the success of the GOP in senate competitions owes more than anything to a favorable cardDemocrats defended 25 of the 33 seats in the game, and 13 were in states that Nixon had worn two years earlier (Democrats are in defense in 10 Trump states this year).

The situations are not purely analogous. As Cox remarked, the economic fundamentals are now much stronger than in 1970, with rising profits and high consumer confidence. The Friday job report also provided Republicans with a powerful final argument: it showed that the average employee's income had risen by 3.1 percent in the past year; Unemployment remained at 3.7 percent, a level not previously seen in Nixon's first installment because the economy added 250,000 jobs last month, the 97th month of consecutive earnings.

Those conditions have voters who express an increasingly positive attitude towards the economy, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News national poll. The survey, which found that Democratic candidates of the House had a 7-point lead on Republicans, half of the lead they enjoyed in August, showed that 65 percent of Americans rated the economy as good or excellent. Optimism has not been that high since January 2001.

House republicans who fight for their political lives in suburban neighborhoods grab the performance of the economy in their final sessions to the electorate, as my colleague Mike DeBonis reports.

And speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) Apparently called Trump yesterday to urge the president to focus on the economy in the last days of the campaign. "But Trump, not surprisingly, had another problem in his mind, and he boasted to Ryan that his focus on immigration had activated the base, according to a source familiar with the call," said Politico.

On the other hand, while the economy probably feels stronger than almost 50 years ago, the president is weaker. Nixon had an approval ratio of 57 percent in the meantime of 1970; The Post-ABC poll shows that the popularity of Trump is 40 percent. "All the interim elections are a referendum on the incumbent president, and Trump made this election about himself more than most presidents, and in his campaign argued that voters should approach the election as if he were on the ballot box," The Dan & # 39 ; s Dan & # 39; s The Post and Scott Clement writing. "But elections also reflect the views of the economy, and Tuesday gives a test of the tension between perceptions of the president and the perception of the economy.Sometimes there was a great distance between views about the economy and the opinion of a president, such as there is this year. & # 39;

Democrats are encouraged by probing that their side is more enthusiastic about voting. The party claims a nine-point advantage from those who say they are certain to vote or have already voted, according to the Post-ABC survey.

Early moods indicate a remarkably high turnout, with predictors predicting the final census could approach 50 percent of the electorate. That would be participation that you have not seen halfway since – you guessed it – 1970.


– Investors are waiting for election results. The Wall Street Journal's Akane Otani and Ira Iosebashvili: "Investors in the United States brace themselves for the unexpected direction of the midterm elections, wary of being falsely caught, as many were after the 2016 presidential election, the Brexit and other crucial voices over the years, few predict the outcome most likely to be seen – Democrats winning the House and Republicans controlling Senate – the kind of violent currency swings that hit the heels [Trump’s] victory.

"But many agree that the elections can create new winners and losers in the market: manufacturers and construction companies could get a boost if a divided convention can reach agreement on infrastructure spending, while banks can lose if a democratic attack leads to a stop in deregulation … One group that could take a hit after the election that had a democratic reach: bank shares Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management believe that a democratically run congress will work on recent efforts by the White House to regulate financial regulation such as the To block the Dodd-Frank Act. "

– Expect a bumpy week for bonds. Emily Barrett of Bloomberg News: "Bond traders see a volatile week taking a toll on US Treasury bonds, and the benchmark rate is already on the brink of a seven-year high, in a regular week would be another super-large round of Treasury bonds and bond auctions. this time a record of $ 83 billion – and an increased discussion about a trade agreement with China on the market can add, adding the wildcard of the US interim elections and turbulence in stocks, and the prospects are even darker … any predictable development is the decision of the Federal Reserve on 8 November, and that is also seen as a way to get higher yields, and market participants expect the policymakers to be on track to raise interest rates again in December. "

– Profits can have a peak. Michael Wursthorn, WSJ: "The post-crisis boom in US corporate earnings is potentially close to the peak, investors and executives say, a possible threat to a nine-year rally that has raised the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than threefold. The rising profits were the main driving force of Dow industrials' business operations this year to 15 records, while last year's corporate taxes have reduced supercharged earnings, eased enlightened valuations and an intense rally in some of the fastest-growing, most valued But managers and investors now say they believe profit bonanza is over, analysts are predicting 6% earnings growth in each of the first two quarters of 2019, because the impact of the tax cut is decreasing, thanks to the 7% analysts who predicted in early October. "

From Farms to Pharma, What the Midterms Mean for Business

The Congress held by the Republican Party has largely supported the policy of the Trump government and helped the President to achieve a large reduction in corporate taxation and to pursue deregulation. But the democratic control of one or both chambers could cut off the agenda of the White House.

The Wall Street Journal



– Xi warns Trump. Gerry Shih of the Washington Post: "For 30 minutes on Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a litany of conciliatory promises to political and business leaders from 172 countries in Shanghai: he would change his country from 1.3 billion to global consumers, welcoming foreign investors into previously limited sectors, and persistent action against Chinese companies abusing intellectual property rights, he apparently turned to an audience of one – his counterpart in the Oval Office – and his tone hardened. "Big winds and storms can disturb a pond, but no ocean, said Xi, where China was compared to a vast and immovable sea. "After 5000 years of trials and trials, China is still here. to stay. & # 39; In a speech in Shanghai on Monday, closely watched by observers as perhaps the last important speech of the Chinese president about trade before he met with [Trump] for crucial talks later this month in Argentina, a self-confident Xi gave little signals that he was in the mood to make substantial concessions. "

Companies feel the pinch. WSJ & S Theo Francis: "US companies say they are dampening the effects of escalating tariffs with China due to price rises or changes in their supply chains, but warn investors that the picture may deteriorate next year." The tariffs have the export of wood and grains. delayed in the US, the cost of imported clothes hangers and materials for heavy equipment, and compressed profit margins for computer chips and toolmakers, among other effects, according to an analysis of the results and remarks of the roughly 75% of S & P 500 companies reported the profit for the third quarter. "

Jack Ma: Trade war is & # 39; the most stupid thing & # 39 ;. Bloomberg: "Bill Maheon, the founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma called fighters nonsensical and again condemned an ever-growing conflict between the US and China.China & # 39; s richest person – who warned last month that a trade war could last for two decades – argued that it was pointless to target goods because the Asian nation was on its way to becoming a major consumer of foreign products, and indeed services – such as those on the internet – that boost job creation, not old-school production , the departing chairman of the Alibaba Group told a business forum on Monday. "

– Renewed NAFTA could increase prices. Paul Wiseman of the Associated Press: "Trump maintains that his new North American trade agreement will be a victory for American factory workers by giving back many high-paying jobs to the United States, but a revision of the agreement suggests that this too higher prices for consumers and more inefficiencies for companies, and the biggest winners can eventually become robots and the companies that make them.

"The pact, unveiled on September 30, seems to meet some of Trump's goals: it could shift more manufacturing output to the United States, leading to a long-running stream of jobs to lower wages in Mexico. Conversely, it could result in better working conditions and perhaps a higher reward for the suffering workers in Mexico, but shifting a business model based on Mexican labor would probably mean more expensive cars for American consumers. North America could become less competitive compared to rivals in Europe and Asia. "



HQ2 finalists: Crystal City, Dallas, New York. WSJ: " Inc. has evolved to the final talks about the planned second headquarters with a small handful of communities, including Crystal City, Dallas and New York City in northern Virginia, people who were familiar with the issue said, because the final step is approaching that can change both the tech giant and the location he chooses.The ongoing discussions with some local officials are because the talks seem to have cooled down in some of the other 20 cities on the Amazon shortlist, including Denver , Toronto, Atlanta, Nashville, Tenn., And Raleigh, NC, according to people familiar with those situations.

"Negotiations with the top candidates are likely to take place in slightly different phases, according to expert people." In Northern Virginia, Amazon negotiates incentives with government officials, while it also talks to JBG Smith Properties, a listed real estate investment fund, about the properties in Crystal City that it possession, according to people familiar with the case. Part of the negotiations is to identify the investment goals that Amazon should meet to be eligible for incentives, said one of the people New York is still actively engaged with Amazon although it is unclear how far they are. "(Founder and CEO Jeffrey P. Bezos of owns The Washington Post.)

– Consultancy firms adhere to Saudi Arabia. Michael Forsythe, Mark Mazzetti, Ben Hubbard and Walt Bogdanich of the New York Times: "Since crown prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia this spring enchanted Goldman Sachs bankers and executives of Silicon Valley during an American tour, some of his most trusted Lieutenants in Washington, Washington In a quiet two-block ceremony of the White House, Saudi officials signed an agreement with Booz Allen Hamilton, the US consulting firm, to help educate the growing numbers of cyberfighters in the kingdom.

"The agreement would open up" big horizons "by improving the skills of the kingdom's cybersecurity experts, Saud al-Qahtani, a top prince consultant of the crown prince who oversaw the deal, said in Saudi Arabia in a statement to the official press It did not mention his ongoing campaign to silence critics both in the kingdom and online Qahtani was fired last month after Saudi officials linked him to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, where he said he had contributed to an aggressive environment that contributed to the murder, but while Mr Khashoggi's death caused investors from all over the world to distance himself from the Saudi government, Booz Allen and his competitors continued to be McKinsey & Company and Boston Consulting Group close after they played a critical role in the motivation of Prince Mohammed to consolidate power. "

SoftBank does that too. NYT & # 39; s Sui-Lee Wee: "Masayoshi Son, chief executive of the SoftBank Group from Japan, said he would continue to do business with Saudi Arabia despite the murder of a journalist in a Saudi consulate as a & # 39; Terrible & # 39; event … & # 39; We want to see the responsible people being held accountable, "said Mr. Son during a press conference about the presentation of his business in Tokyo." At the same time, we responsibility of the people of Saudi Arabia, an obligation that we take very seriously to help them manage their financial resources and diversify their economy. & # 39;

– Sears is looking for a lifeline. Reuters & # 39; s Mike Spector and Jessica DiNapoli: "Sears Holdings Corp is in talks with President Eddie Lampert and financiers on a deal to expand a financing package for bankruptcies that would help prevent liquidation." Lampert hedge fund ESL Investments Inc, together with other potential lenders, is contributing to contribute up to $ 450 million in bankruptcy funding in exchange for key collateral held by Sears' banks, including some store lease agreements. "The revised loan in question is Sears, which approximately 68,000 people, provide more breathing space to prevent liquidation and reorganize around a smaller number of stores that are expected to be offered for sale. "


Wall Street, business tilt giving towards Dems. WSJ & # 39; s Julie Bykowicz: "Wall Street and business, which break with a long-standing trend, cover their political bets by making more contributions to Democrats during the interim elections, according to fundraising data compiled by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics Not giving donors in the securities and investment industries a higher percentage of Democratic candidates and party committees than to Republicans since 2008. This year, through 17 October, Wall Street contributors donated about $ 85 million to Democrats and about $ 76 million in Republicans, and according to fundraising data for the first time in eight years, corporate communities spend more on Democratic candidates and party commissions than on Republicans, contributing $ 891 million to Democrats and $ 839 million to Republicans through October 17. "

Mike Bloomberg sells $ 5 million midterm ads. Bob Costa of The Post: "Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City in 2020, who is considering a presidential campaign over 2020, came one step closer to that opportunity with a $ 5 million national advertising effort that voters encourages to support Democrats in the Tuesday, mid-term elections – and offers Bloomberg's centrist policy as a counterweight to President Trump Bloomberg's two-minute television ad in which he talks directly to the camera and stands in front of an American flag , was first aired in the "60 minutes" of CBS on Sunday and will be broadcasted on Monday during the evening news programs on broadcast networks and on MSNBC and CNN.

"Bloomberg, 76, portrays himself on the spot as a stable and seasoned outsider of Washington (hint: president) who is shocked by the behavior and agenda of Trump and alarmed by episodes of political violence and Trumps attacks on the caravan of Central American migrants. "


Coming soon

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings institution on Friday in Washington.
  • Senate Judiciary Committee hearing entitled "Big bank bankruptcy: 10 years after Lehman Brothers" on 13 November.
  • Senate Banking Committee hearing on "Supervision of pilot program" by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "on 14 November.
  • Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman of the Supervisory Board Randal Quarles will appear on November 15 for the Senate Committee.
  • The National Economists Club will hold an event in Washington on November 15 with the title "US Outlook: Exploring the Key Debates".


– A New Yorker cartoon by William Haefeli:


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