US President Trump wants to turn Iran's oil tap. The new sanctions have now entered into force, but investors are still left on the oil market. That can change, but you have to be happy: Vladimir Putin.
So far, the oil market has remained quite impressed. The price of oil has hardly changed, despite the new sanctions. The prices have usually dropped even further, which may also have to do with the current worries about the world economy. A barrel (159 liters) of the North Sea Brent costs $ 72.54 in the morning. That was 29 cents less than on Friday. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil fell by 33 cents to $ 62.82. Iranian President Hassan Ruhani has announced his intention to "proudly take the new US penalties".
Further course information about Brent
Further course information about oil (WTI)
No rule without exceptions
The lack of immediate response is partly due to the fact that the markets have had to adjust for a long time to the sanctions. Investors have already covered themselves with oil. At the beginning of October, the oil price rose to a high point in four years. In an interview with "Euro am Sonntag", the CEO of the oil supply group Schoeller-Bleckmann, Gerald Grohmann: "The sanctions have already been taken into account at the current listing." Moreover, it comes to a complete export ban, because countries such as China continue to refer oil from the Iran.
In fact, the US wants to allow eight countries to continue to source crude oil from Iran. According to media reports, these include large customers such as China, Japan or India.
How low are the exports?
Reliable figures are difficult to obtain in the oil market and some information varies considerably. However, experts are certain that Iranian oil exports have plummeted. Some experts talk about a decrease from 2.5 million barrels per day in April to 1.6 million in September. According to the Wall Street Journal, which uses different numbers, Iran is losing about one billion dollars a month.
The purpose of the US government is to reduce exports to zero. The more successful the sanctions are, the greater the chance that an undesirable side effect could have an effect: to compensate for the failure of Iranian production, Opec's third-largest oil producer, the non-OPEC member Russia would gap can jump. Ironically, Russia could become a beneficiary of sanctions.
The future oil price will depend first and foremost on the size of Iranian exports, and on the success of other producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. Carsten Fritsch, commodity expert at Commerzbank, is of the opinion that oil is threatening to lose sanctions by the end of the year: "The oil market is suffering from a significant supply shortage in the fourth quarter." At the same time there is concern that oil producers do not want to or can not do this to close this gap. Fritsch therefore expects higher prices. From the beginning of 2019 the situation will relax again.