Chronicles of a ruined economy. Moody & # 39; s again raised the appreciation of Russia

International rating agency Moody & # 39; s has raised the Russian sovereign rating again, this time from Ba1 to Baa3. At the same time, the "long-term rating of the issuer" and the "unsecured debt ratings" priority of the Russian Federation were increased to the level of investment. The prognosis, however, had changed from positive to stable. The most funny thing here is how the incident (including some slow pace in making decisions) is explained in Moody's own.

There are many different words, but the most important is the "positive influence of the policies of recent years", according to the international rating agency, mainly aimed at strengthening reliable public finances and other external indicators of the country. On the other hand, "the vulnerability of Russia to external shocks", for example sanctions and oil prices. Sorry, but it has to be said: "The persistent vulnerability to further external shock effects, such as the continued, albeit reduced dependence on oil prices and still high geopolitical tensions, has slowed the return to investment rating."

Moody's rating agency logo

February 9, 12:08

The economist explained the increase of the Russian rating agency Moody & # 39; s

"Dependence on the oil price" is apparently "decisive" from the point of view of Moody & # 39; s.

But there is a problem.

Here some time ago we were pretty hard for us (and the Saudis), you could even say, a certain Donald Trump was "rude". And the essence of his claims was that Russia and Saudi Arabia, through OPEC + institutions, control oil prices. Including overestimating their level, they do not make it very comfortable for the most advanced economy in the world.

The result of the sharp response of the American president was, although not completely public, but it is easy to read, as they say, from the point of view of a careful observer. The high sides, including the Russian Federation, the "oversight" OPEC of Saudi Arabia and fundamentally not included in OPEC + US, judging by the silence on this issue (including the tweet from Trump), were mutually acceptable. Although production was reduced, prices fell for everyone in a more or less comfortable level.

Website of the international rating agency Moody`s

February 9, 2:41

Moody & # 39; s found borrowing from Russia low.

But the point is generally not in this event, but in the difference of approaches. Nevertheless, "managing oil prices" and "depending on them" are two major differences. And do not feel the difference, if you are not an analyst of an international rating agency, it is generally quite difficult.

And here it is difficult to disagree with the assessment of the decision to increase the rating of the Russian Minister of Economy Maxim Oreshkin, who directly stated that the reason for the incident is simple: Moody & # 39; s has everything exhausted, even the most fantastic arguments against raising sovereign Russia.

There are other estimates, however.

Banknotes of 5,000 rubles

February 9, 05:37

Decisions to increase the creditworthiness of Russia from 1996 to our days

For example, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov said that the agency, after upgrading the Russian rating, appreciated the success of Moscow's economic policy.

And he added that he finds the decision of Moody & # 39; s reasonable.

The Minister of Finance in particular is pleased that all three major rating agencies in the world now recommend investing in Russia. Standard & Poor & # 39; s thus confirmed the sovereign creditworthiness of Russia in foreign currency at the lower end of the investment grade level "BBB-" in January, keeping the forecast "stable". Yes, and Fitch confirmed the long-term credit ratings of Russia at investment level "BBB-" with a positive outlook. Fitch, for example, notes separately that the positive outlook reflects "continued progress in strengthening the economic policy framework on the basis of a flexible exchange rate, a strong commitment to address inflation and a well-considered fiscal strategy."

Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov on the X Gaidar forum. 15 January 2019

February 9, 01:12

Siluanov appreciated Moody's decision to increase the sovereign rating of Russia

… The sovereign ratings of our economy in recent years remain stable or even grow slightly, but these are pleasing to international investment activity, they are almost unimportant. No, money goes, of course, into the Russian economy, and sometimes more than substantial. The problem is that they go to the level of direct investment – and in the real sector. But ratings, even sovereign, have no relationship with direct investments in specific projects, there are other mechanisms to train and make decisions. What can actually influence the statuses of international credit rating agencies are the portfolios of speculators who manage the financial flows in the world economy. But these guys also have the ability to first, let us say, look at the same "sanctions". And only then do you listen to the rating agencies of the analysts. And although it is not known what will happen to this "positive sovereign assessment" of Russia, if the United States, for example, imposes the promised "draconian sanctions". As the experience with the previous "terrible sectoral sanctions" suggests, it is unlikely that the Russian economy itself will be affected, we have already adjusted it. But the investment level & # 39; of ratings, the lens is unlikely to survive.

Rating agency Moody & # 39; s

9 February, 2:15 am

Moody & # 39; s explained why the sovereign rating of Russia did not increase for long

That's why: gentlemen, let's cool down somehow.

Yes, this kind of assessment of the "destroyed Russian economy" by the same Moody & # 39; s certainly pleasant. But the tasks facing the national Russian economy and global rating agencies are initially different. And the estimates for solving these problems that the national economy is facing will ultimately not be determined by Moody & # 39; s and Fitch.

Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin

February 9, 01:32

Oreshkin: Moody & # 39; s exhausted the arguments against the upgrade of Russia