Europeans: Macron prepares a duel with Le Pen

ENQUVETE – An Odoxa-Dentsu Consulting survey Le Figaro en France Info places the LaREM and RN lists on an elbow-to-elbow basis. The head of state's strategy is organized around this confrontation.

The poll looming in less than nine months will amount to a duel at the top between macronists and supporters of Marine Le Pen? The revenge of the second round of the presidential election? This is at least the trend that emerges from the Odoxa Dentsu Consulting survey Le Figaro and France Info. With 21.5% of the voting intentions, La République and marche (LaREM) and the national meeting (ex FN, 21%) keep in touch. The other lists are outdated. To begin with those of the Republicans, who are beheaded with 14% of the votes. That is almost half less than the last European, where the right-wing party had 27% of the votes. For his part, the PS continues its staggering fall. His list is given at 4.5%. Or, in the same low water as environmental activists (5%) and friends of Benoît Hamon (4.5%).

Traditional parties struggle to find oxygen. They can not take advantage of the difficulties of macronism, in continuous decline for several weeks.

More surprising: the unmarried France (12.5%) does not respond to the catastrophic summer of the executive power, despite a strong media presence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen, not very present in this political comeback and bogged down in the economic difficulties of her party, is better than resisted. She wins the match on the right: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan & # 39; s "Debout la France" (DLF) is given to 6% of the votes and Florian Philippot's Patriotes to 1.5%. The mano-mano LaREM-RN in any case validates the strategy of Emmanuel Macron, consisting of polarizing the debate about a clash between pro-Europeans and Eurosceptics, between "progressives" and "conservatives". By imposing this duality, the majority seizes the party of Laurent Wauquiez, whose members of the European Parliament have not reached agreement this week on Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary. Some voted for the activation of Article 7 of the EU Treaty and paved the way for possible sanctions (Tokia Saïfi, Alain Lamassoure, Jerome Lavrilleux) and others (Nadine Morano). Several elected officials opted for abstention (Michele Alliot-Marie, Arnaud Danjean, Rachida Dati, Geoffroy Didier, Brice Hortefeux).

Find the right leader

Divergences that delight the relatives of Emmanuel Macron, who predict that the EPP is broken, conservative training in the European Parliament. "The national parties that are part of the EPP are not ideologically aligned, says a consultant Emmanuel Macron.There is a gap between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and ViKtor Orban".

Problem: in order to bring about this political rearrangement, macronists have still not found the rare bird. Names circulate, including that of Daniel Cohn-Bendit. The designation of the leader of May 68 may be a solution. It is seen as a good idea by 55% of LaREM supporters, by two thirds of the sympathizers ecologists and by almost a PS sympathizer of the two. His candidacy might bite left, but lose his voices. "It has been a while for us to work on this hypothesis, says the head of state, it is not a scenario in the air, but it is a personality that is being tortured by a dilemma between wanting to do and maintaining its freedom." At Cohn-Bendit there is a risk like that of Nicolas Hulot Finally, does he really embody what we are? "However, his candidacy is struggling with the passing of the French, who according to our research are 65% to think that it would be a bad choice.

Beyond the incarnation there is the question of the circumference. How far can we reach to gather the pro-Europeans? Bayrou wants the list to consist essentially of LaREM and MoDem. But at UDI like Agir, some want to participate in the adventure of a comprehensive list.

The President still has a few weeks to decide on this point and still destroy his balance at European level: refusal by the European Parliament to transnational lists dear to Emmanuel Macron, still an embryonic advance in the budget of the euro zone and especially the difficulty of the France to take leadership in the migration crisis. A theme that will be central to the European campaign. According to the Odoxa-Dentsu Consulting survey, immigration comes second in the subjects that will determine the French vote. Just after the issue of purchasing power.

»See also: European elections 2019: first voting round about voting intentions