Week 1 results were mixed a bit. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers crushed the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, but neither the Buffalo Bills nor the Dallas Cowboys could collect enough points to cover the spread, let alone win. As the season progresses, the underlying statistics that feed our weekly projections get a larger sample size and, therefore, a better understanding of weekly matchups.
Our competition projection formula helps determine how often one team beats the other team on the basis of actual and expected profit percentages. That gives us win opportunities for every game, as well as an implicit profit margin – useful for choosing games against the spread.
The process of making patented point spreads is done by the computer, but an eye test element is involved. For example, the Carolina Panthers seem to have a high lead compared to the Atlanta Falcons, but injuries to Daryl Williams lawsuit and tight side Greg Olsen on the Carolina side and an injury at the end of the season, starting with Keanu Neal's safety for Atlanta , this game makes a pass. When you see the potential for so much variance of the projection, a game is usually not worth the money.
With that in mind, here are this week's prime picks at the consensus point that is being distributed from multiple sports books in Vegas.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
Select: Cleveland Browns +8.5
The Browns did not win on Sunday, but they have not lost, which is a "victory" for the franchise. Now they get to see a defense of New Orleans that last week allowed a division-high of 3.7 points per ride, so they could close the game at least another week longer.
If the Saints beat the Browns in week 2, they will have to do it with the passing game – since 2017, the Cleveland defense has delivered 96 points less than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each carry. Only the Denver Broncos were better at that time (108 points less than expected via the rush).
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)
Select: Kansas City Chiefs +5
Looking back Le & # 39; Veon Bell is no longer on the team's depth map and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has to deal with a bruised elbow, so the Chiefs can start 2-0 for the second year in a row, while our system sees Kansas as City the favorite in this game.
The Chiefs counted 2.8 points per ride in the opener against the Los Angeles Chargers with quarterback Pat Mahomes II and Tyreek Hill connecting on seven of eight passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Those two would have to be a handful for Pittsburgh, whose subordinate was ranked as the 23rd best in the league by the gameplayers at Pro Football Focus.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (-5.5)
Select: Washington Redskins -5.5
Adrian Peterson, the 33-year-old refugee from the Redskins, showed that he still had it, driving 96 meters on 26 in the opener. More than half of these shipyards (58) were, after contact, a tricky statistic for the Colts, owners of the fourth worst run defense in the NFL per PFF.
Washington's defense will also make Colts quarterback Andrew Luck's life difficult. The passersby of the Redskins have sacked, hit or hurried Sam Bradford 25 times on Sunday, meaning that Luck will not often enjoy a clean bag. And when it happened to him on Sunday, his number of passers-by dropped from 114.3 to 25.7. In 2016, his last full season, his passant figure fell under pressure from 112.0 to 72.0.
The three games above represent my best games of the week, as my analysis shows that the scatter scores are the most divergent of what I expect to happen when the teams enter the field. One reason the house wins so often is because gamblers try to make too many games if the odds are not in their favor. This makes it an attempt to find out every NFL game as a foolish message. The odds must be in my favor in the three games above, and that is why I think they are worth it. Below is our graph that predicts the gambling speed for each game.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Pick & # 39; em)
Choose: Baltimore Ravens 0
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
Choice: Carolina Panthers +5.5
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-1)
Choice: Green Bay Packers – 1
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3)
Select: New York Jets -3
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (Not a rule yet)
Select: Tennessee Titans -1
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) in Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Select: Philadelphia Eagles -3
Los Angeles Chargers (-7) at Buffalo Bills
Select: Buffalo Bills +7
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Select: Los Angeles Rams -12.5
Detroit Lions in San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Choice: Detroit Lions +5.5
New England Patriots (-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Choice: Jacksonville Jaguars +2
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-6)
Select: Denver Broncos -6
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Select: Dallas Cowboys -3
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3)
Choice: Chicago Bears -3
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