Right-wing party Vox shakes Spanish political order

For the first time an extreme right party enters the institutions and becomes decisive for the formation of the regional government in Andalusia.

In Spain, 2018 was a year with a political life full of ups and downs, such as the motion of censure in May that overthrew the conservative Mariano Rajoy, to power in Spain. And 2019 is probably like that.

Last surprise: the appearance of an extreme right-wing party, Vox, in the Andalusian regional elections of December 2, decisive for the nomination of the candidate Popular Party, who reigns in coalition with the liberal centrist Ciudadanos.

Socialist Andalusia turns to the right

After thirty-six years of socialist rule in Andalusia, this turnaround is important. It is also the first time that a far-right party has entered Spanish institutions since the beginning of democracy, ending the Spanish exception in Europe.

An unreadable future

Nevertheless, predicting the trajectory of this new far-right party in the coming months, especially on 26 May in the European, municipal and regional elections (except in Andalusia, the Basque Country, Catalonia and Galicia), remains difficult. “The only prognosis is that there is no prognosis”Xavier Casals, a professor of history at Ramon-Llull University in Barcelona, ​​specializes in extreme right-wing movements and populism.

He adds: “It is impossible to know exactly what could happen because we still do not know if there will be early parliamentary elections in Spain in 2019 and anticipate regional elections in Catalonia, all variables that cause volatility among voters.”

Parliamentary instability

For a few weeks, analysts went from hypothesis to hypothesis because the political picture remains unstable. The socialist Pedro Sanchez, in power since the end of May, is still struggling with great parliamentary instability. It can only rely on 84 deputies from the 350 in the hemisphere.

His alliance with Podemos, radical left, is not enough. In particular, he tries to convince the Catalan separatists to support his budget, which he will present in the Council of Ministers. But the coming weeks will be tense because of the lawsuit at the end of January of the independence leaders at the Supreme Court in Madrid, due to rebellion.

Spain, extreme right enters the arena in Andalusia

Vox also remains a young party, founded in 2013, but went to the institutions last December. “At the moment there are few studies on this party, unlike, for example, the National Rally in France which has received a European representation, there are thirty-four years,” Xavier Casals points out. As far as Vox is concerned, “It is difficult to draw conclusions from a single election in Andalusia, adds the researcher. It will probably be necessary to wait until the end of an election cycle, by 2020, to really know how the electorate of this party will evolve. “.

Valérie Demon, correspondent in Madrid