Rural research SPD for the first time at 15 percent and only at the fourth strongest party
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The next blow to the SPD: in a GMS survey it drops to 15 percent, so it is behind three other parties. Shortly before the state elections in Bavaria, more than half of the respondents are still undecided.
Dhe crashes from the SPD in national polls seems to have no limit. If the elections of the Bundestag were to be coming Sunday, according to a representative survey by GMS, only 15 percent of voters would decide for the Social Democrats. The SPD loses two weeks ago compared to the previous survey, a percentage point and for the first time only comes at federal level on the fourth strongest level of all parties. It is their new low in the regular monthly surveys conducted by GMS since 2002.
CDU / CSU (27 percent) and AfD (18 percent) can keep their results from the last GMS survey at the end of September. The Greens are up by one percentage point and, with 16 percent of the votes in the elections in the Bundestag, for the first time before the EPD in the GMS surveys. The FDP (plus one percentage point) and the left (unchanged) each reach ten percent.
The other parties come together for four percent. The percentage of non-voters and undecided is still 35 percent, well above the level of the non-voting part of about 25 percent in the general elections in September 2017.
The large coalition of the Union and the SPD, together with 42 percent of the vote, have reached the lowest level since the 2017 general election, far from an absolute majority of the second vote. Because all other parties, whose number of votes is above the threshold of five percent and would therefore be represented in the Bundestag, are together 54 percent.
In the surveys of other institutes in recent weeks, the Union is between 26 and 31.5 percent, the SPD between 16 and 19.5 percent, the AfD between 14 and 18 percent, the Greens between 12.5 and 18 percent, the left between nine and eleven percent, the FDP between 8.5 and 10 percent and the other parties added together between three and five percent.
For the Sunday question, the GMS of Hamburg held a representative survey of 1007 respondents from 4 to 10 October. Fault tolerance is usually +/- 3 percentage points.
53 percent of Bayern is still undecided
GMS also conducted an investigation in the Free State on behalf of 5.30 pm Sat.1 Bayern. On the publication of the results of the Sunday question apart from the TV channel. Three days before the election of the state, this could be "misunderstood as polls by poll".
However, the research result was published that every second voter is still indecisive shortly before the Sunday elections. 53 percent of respondents said their voting or voting intentions were still uncertain. The share has even increased slightly compared to the past few weeks.
The split Bayern are therefore in which coalition would be better if the election result allowed a twofold: 37 percent would be for black and green, 33 percent for a coalition of CSU and free voters. Of the CSU supporters, 40 percent are in favor of a coalition with the Free Electors, 38 percent for one with the Greens.
Many interviewees still state that federal politics play an important role in their voting decisions: 43 called a corresponding question on federal politics, 52 percent government policy. And almost every second said that the behavior of the CSU and party leader Horst Seehofer in the federal government plays a role in the election decision for him. 19 percent even mentioned this very decisively, another 26 percent said.
Between 4 and 10 October, GMS interviewed 1007 voters in the Free State by telephone for the poll on the state elections in Bavaria.