The fall in oil prices and sanctions will "drop" the Russian economy, according to CB.
The Russian economy may face a recession next year, given the expansion of sanctions and the deterioration of the situation in the trading partner countries. Such conclusions were made by the Central Bank in the September report on monetary policy.
At the same time, the regulator offers no concrete conditions to develop the events exactly under this high-risk scenario, RBC specifies. The Central Bank indicates that it only set the conditions for a significant deterioration of the external environment for the Russian economy & # 39; A disappointing forecast also causes a fall in oil prices to $ 35 per barrel.
If the risk scenario is achieved, Russians are expected to "significantly accelerate price growth" and "the production of GDP growth rates in the negative region." As noted by RBC, the recession in Russia was observed in 2015, when GDP fell by 2.5%, and in 2016 (-0.2%).
Earlier, the head of the Russian Ministry of Economy, Maxim Oreshkin, said that the Russian economy will be at the lowest point of growth in the first quarter of 2019. This will contribute to the increase of VAT.